الاستدلال والتنبؤ البايزي في مجمع استخدام المياه والأراضي الناشئ في ليبيا

المؤلفون

  • أمـــــان الرمالي قسم الاقتصاد الزراعي، كلية الزراعة، جامعة طرابلس، طرابلس–ليبيا المؤلف
  • غارث هولووي كلية الزراعة والسياسات والتنمية، جامعة ريدينغ، ريدينغ، بيركشاير,المملكة المتحدة المؤلف

الكلمات المفتاحية:

الاستدلال البايزي، موارد المياه، استخدام الأراضي، الاستدامة، ليبيا

الملخص

تستخدم هذه الورقة الأساليب الإحصائية البايزية لنمذجة والتنبؤ بالتفاعلات المعقدة بين موارد المياه واستخدام الأراضي في ليبيا، وهي دولة تواجه تحديات بيئية وتخطيطية كبيرة. يدمج النموذج مصادر بيانات متنوعة لتقييم الاتجاهات الحالية واستشراف سيناريوهات مستقبلية تحت ظروف سياسية ومناخية مختلفة. تسلط النتائج الضوء على نقاط الضغط الحركة وتقدم تنبؤات احتمالية للإدارة المستدامة للموارد. يوفر هذا النهج إطارًا قويًا لصانعي القرار لتقييم الآثار طويلة المدى لسياسات استخدام الأراضي وإدارة المياه في بيئة غير مؤكدة

التنزيلات

تنزيل البيانات ليس متاحًا بعد.

المراجع

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التنزيلات

منشور

2016-12-31

إصدار

القسم

Research Articles

كيفية الاقتباس

الاستدلال والتنبؤ البايزي في مجمع استخدام المياه والأراضي الناشئ في ليبيا. (2016). مجـلة العلـوم الأساسية والتطبيقية (طرابلس), 22(1), 43-67. https://lafsrj.lafsrj.ly/index.php/JBAS/article/view/102

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