Climatic Changes and their Impact on Agricultural Production in Libya for the Period (1980-2010)

Abstract

Climate change has a strong effect on agricultural production, and consequently on food supply and security. In addition, the agricultural techniques play a minor role in the production of most of crops in Libya and therefore they are very sensitive to climate effects. This study aims to examine thecausal relationship between climatic conditions and annual production of important crops duringthe period (1980 – 2010) usingthe Pairwise Granger Causality test. The climatic variables were rainfall and temperature, and the crops were wheat, barley, onion, watermelons, tomatoes and potatoes. There was bidirectional causality between temperature trend and potato production and unidirectional causality between temperature and watermelon and wheat production. There was no causality between temperature on the one hand and production of barley, onion and tomatoes on the other hand. The results also show a unidirectional causality running from rainfall to potatoes and wheat, and a bidirectional relationship between rainfall and watermelon. There was no directional causation from rainfall to barley or tomatoes. Based on these findings, Libyan authorities should pay more attention to the planting of crop varieties that are resistant to drought and heat and focus on the development of such varieties.